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Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Generic Congressional Ballot Polls and Average

Last Updated: 4/10/2010, 11:00 AM CT

Below is our table showing the "Generic Congressional Ballot" Polls and the polling average. The “Generic Congressional Ballot” has been useful in showing trends, particularly in midterm elections, of which party is likely to make gains in Congress. As a rule, Democrats tend to lead the Generic Ballot by a few points. In general, if Republicans are even or ahead in the Generic Ballot, it signals they are likely to make gains in Congress. The last few weeks before the election are important to watch, to see if the ballot moves in the direction of one party or the other.


Generic Congressional Ballot

The last 40 days (Since 3/1/10) of Polls are listed and used to calculate the average.

Date
Poll
Type
GOP%
Democrat%
Margin
AVG.


45.2
42.2
+3.0
4/6-7/10
RV
43
39
+4
3/29-4/4/10
LV
47
38
+9
3/29-4/4/10
RV
46
46
Tie
3/25-28/10
RV
49
45
+4
3/22-28/10
RV
47
44
+3
3/22-28/10
LV
46
39
+7
3/23-26/10
RV
44
48
+4
3/19-21/10
RV
48
45
+3
3/16-21/10
RV
44
39
+5
3/15-21/10
RV
45
47
+2
3/15-21/10
LV
43
35
+8
3/15-18/10
LV
43
44
+1
3/8-15/10
RV
44
47
+3
3/12-14/10
RV
46
43
+3
3/8-14/10
LV
45
35
+10
3/1-7/10
LV
44
37
+7
3/1-7/10
RV
44
47
+3
LV = Likely Voters              RV = Registered Voters   
NOTE: Only “Likely Voter” and “Registered Voter” Polls are included.


Below is a Gallup Model for predicting the number of Democrat Seats in the U.S. House of Representatives based on their percentage of the vote in the Generic Congressional Ballot. The model is based on analysis of past midterm elections. As you can see, the model shows that if Democrats are at the 48% level or above in Gallup's Generic Ballot Poll, they will retain the majority. But under 48%, and the Republicans will retake the majority in the House.

Current Democrat Gallup % = 44%

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