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Tuesday, March 23, 2010

First GOP Candidate Ad Running Against ObamaCare: "Russ Holt and Nancy Pelosi Ignored You" - Video 3/23/10

Here is perhaps the first campaign ad against the new ObamaCare Law. It has Republican candidate Scott Sipprelle saying, "Russ Holt and Nancy Pelosi ignored you." It urges voters to hold New Jersey (12th Congressional District) Democrat Rep. Russ Holt "accountable" for his support of ObamaCare. We will likely see a lot of ads with this theme between now and November.


Marty D,  March 23, 2010 at 8:11 PM  

It won't matter. Robust political research shows that people will vote the economy. The Republicans would be wise to focus on joblessness, in particular.

The out-party always does better at the midterms, but if the recovery continues, Republicans will probably end up disappointed. If the recovery stalls, Republicans will make huge gains.

Keep in mind, too, that the most recent poll shows that number of Americans who believe that health care reform is good thing exceeds the number who think it's a bad thing by 9%. In political terms, this a huge disparity.

Yes, one poll could be an outlier, but it has been repeatedly noted by researchers that the earlier numbers were deceptive because many of those who said they opposed reform, opposed it because they didn't think it went far enough. One researcher found that this group constituted 37% of the opposition. Now that it's passed, these people say it's a positive rather than a negative. The problem in them is that they want more than this bill.

So even if health care reform could influence the midterms (and it won't), the polling shows HCR as a favorable for Dems. But, again, wait and see. It's will be all about the economy and I hope the Republicans will focus on the problems and mistakes in this area. That will give us our best shot.

Re NJ 12th, unless they find a naked 19-year-old intern in Russ Holt's hotel room, he's not going anywhere. This is an extremely liberal district full of academics. Telling voters there that Holt ignored them is bizarre. There is no doubt that voters in this district supported HCR by a wide margin. Bringing it up will backfire on Sipprelle. He's got an uphill battle and his only hope is a stalled recovery or a scandal.

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