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Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Polling Site 538.com Says There's a 74% Chance Brown Wins MA Senate Race

Outstanding polling site 538.com says there is a 74% chance Scott Brown will win the Massachusetts Senate Race tonight. This website is led by Nate Silver, and although he is pro-Democrat, his analysis of polls and his predictions were incredibly accurate in the 2008 election. His models put the race tonight in the Brown column:

The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasting Model, which correctly predicted the outcome of all 35 Senate races in 2008, now regards Republican Scott Brown as a 74 percent favorite to win the Senate seat in Massachusetts on the basis of new polling from ARG, Research 2000 and InsiderAdvantage which show worsening numbers for Brown's opponent, Martha Coakley. We have traditionally categorized races in which one side has between a 60 and 80 percent chance of winning as "leaning" toward that candidate, and so that is how we categorize this race now: Lean GOP. . . . MORE

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