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Monday, January 18, 2010

"Bellweather" Polling Shows Republican Scott Brown Leading by Double-Digits in MA Senate Race

Polling of Massachusetts "Bellweather Areas" is out today in the Senate Race between Scott Brown and Democrat Martha Coakley. The results are staggering for Democrats.

The polling shows Brown leading in three "Bellweather" cities by double-digits:

A poll released a day before the special Senate race shows Senator Scott Brown surging to a double-digit lead over Attorney General Martha Coakley in the race for the open Massachusetts Senate seat.

The shift in favor of the Republican Party is a potential disaster for President Barack Obama and his Democratic political agenda.

Brown has surged to a double-digit lead over Coakley in three Massachusetts communities identified as bellwethers, according to the latest SuffolkUniversitybellwether polling of the race for U.S. Senate.

Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody all show solid margins for Brown, the state senator running against Coakley. The cities were identified as bellwether communities because in the most recent "like election" - the November 2006 Senate race between the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and Republican challenger Kenneth Chase - the results in all three communities were within 1 percentage point of the actual statewide results for each candidate. Additionally, party registration in those cities is similar to the statewide voter makeup. . . .

The bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:

Brown (55%) leads Coakley (40%) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2%, while 3% are undecided.

In Fitchburg, Brown (55%) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41%), with 2% for Kennedy and 2% undecided.

Peabody voters give Brown (57%), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40%), with Kennedy polling 1% and 3% undecided.

The bellwether polls are designed to predict outcomes and not margins. Suffolk's bellwether polls have been 96% accurate in picking straight-up winners when taken within three days of an election since 2006. . . . MORE
These are polling results MSNBC's Chris Matthews referred to earlier today in saying "it looks like Brown" will win - a win he said will be "the shot heard round the world."


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