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Tuesday, November 10, 2009

GOP Moves to Six-Point Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot - Rasmussen

Rasmussen Reports quietly put out the Generic Congressional Ballot poll this afternoon showing the Republican Party with a six-point lead over the Democrats at 43%-37%. That's a two-point jump since last week, and an eight-point swing from one year ago.

Interestingly, an average of four key Generic Congressional Ballot Polls just days before the 1994 mid-term election gave a six-point margin for the GOP over Democrats.
Those four polls were:

ABC: --- 47-46 in favor of the Dems (a 6-point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
Gallup: --- 51-44 for the GOP (a 4 point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
NBC: --- 46-35 for the GOP (a 2 point swing in the two weeks toward the Dems)
Times Mirror: --- 48-43 for the GOP (a 7 point swing in the last month toward the Dems)

That was the year Republicans swept to a massive win, taking 54 seats away from Democrats and gaining control of the House of Representatives. Obviously, it is way too early to draw conclusions right now. But the trend is strong for Republicans right now, and it will bear watching closely as we get into the summer and fall of 2010. If the trend stays at 6-points + for the GOP, it will certainly make a lot of Democrats nervous about what may be coming.


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