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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Zogby Talking About Landslide Numbers for Obama

The numbers are really sobering if you support John McCain, which I do. But it does appear there is real movement toward Barack Obama right now that is undeniable. Only the Battleground poll has the race closer than five points right now. Here are the sobering numbers Zogby is talking about today that he is comparing to Ronald Reagan's landslide in 1980. Zogby has Obama ahead by 10-points today at 52%-42%. Obama has gained 7-points over the last three days. Drudge is headlining Zogby's numbers right now:

Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.

Obama wins 85% support from Democrats, and 11% of Republicans.

McCain wins 83% of the Republican vote, and 10% of the Democratic vote.

The three–day rolling average poll includes 1,208 likely voters nationwide, surveyed at the rate of 400 interviews per day and was conducted Oct. 19–21, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/– 2.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using live telephone operators in Zogby’s in–house call center in Upstate New York.

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