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Thursday, October 23, 2008

Obama Sweeping "Big Ten States" in New Polling - 10/23/08

The Big Ten Battleground Polls for "Big Ten" states are out, and they are devastating for John McCain if accurate:

The new Big Ten poll shows Obama ahead in every Big Ten state, including Indiana, where McCain held a slight edge in September, and Ohio and Pennsylvania, where last month’s poll results showed the two candidates in a dead heat.

Head-to-head results for individual states

IllinoisObama 61%McCain 32%
IndianaObama 51%McCain 41%
IowaObama 52%McCain 39%
MichiganObama 58%McCain 36%
MinnesotaObama 57%McCain 38%
OhioObama 53%McCain 41%
PennsylvaniaObama 52%McCain 41%
WisconsinObama 53%McCain 40%

The poll also included a nationally representative sample of 1,014 respondents, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. That survey shows Obama with a 9-point margin over McCain, 52 percent to 43 percent.

“With the fundamental factors so to their advantage, this election was always about Barack Obama and the Democrats reaching a threshold level of credibility with voters,” said Goldstein, a UW-Madison political science professor. “It appears Obama has and this race has popped nationally and here in the Big Ten.”

The sample of registered voters and those likely to register to vote before the 2008 Presidential election for the state and national surveys was selected by random digit dialing (RDD) of landline phones. Cell-only households were not included in the sample.

NOTE: One caveat on this polling is that they apparently included in the sample people who were "likely to register to vote." I've never seen that in a reputable poll before.


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