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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Obama Now Up Six-Points in Rasmussen Tracking Poll - 10/22/08

The Rasmussen Tracking Poll now has Barack Obama ahead by six-points, 51%-45%. Scott Rasmussen says the incredible stability of the race for a full month now indicates it will be "difficult" for John McCain to change the dynamic of the race:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. Obama has now enjoyed a modest lead every day for nearly a month.

It is difficult to overstate the stability of this campaign ever since the events on Wall Street brought a new wave of economic anxiety to the fore. Just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and started the Wall Street debacle, McCain held a very slight lead in the polls. Immediately afterwards, the race became more of a referendum on the Bush Administration and Obama moved ahead. The stability of Obama’s advantage in recent weeks suggests that it will be difficult for McCain to change the dynamic before the results are finally set in stone.

For the past eleven days, Obama has been at the 50% or 51% level of support every day in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. During those same eleven days, McCain has been at 45% or 46% every day and the gap between the candidates has stayed between four and six percentage points.

If you go back a couple of weeks further, the results are pretty much the same. It’s now been 27 days since Obama’s support moved below 50% or above 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points.

What Rasmussen is saying is undeniably true - John McCain is in a difficult position. But "difficult" is not impossible. John McCain must keep pressing home the issue of taxes and readiness to be President over these last 13 days. Hopefully, voters are going to take one more long last look at Barack Obama and will decide in the final couple of days he is too risky.

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